📈 Profit Target Comparison
| Take Profit |
Win Amount |
Win Rate |
Loss Amount |
EV/Trade |
Daily (4 trades) |
Monthly |
| 10% |
$92.50 |
70% |
$75 |
+$42.25 |
+$169 |
+$3,380 |
| 15% |
$138.75 |
59% |
$75 |
+$51.11 |
+$204 |
+$4,089 |
| 20% |
$185.00 |
52% |
$75 |
+$60.20 |
+$241 |
+$4,816 |
| 35% |
$323.75 |
39% |
$75 |
+$80.51 |
+$322 |
+$6,441 |
💰 Break-Even Analysis
| Take Profit |
Win $ |
Lose $ |
Break-Even WR |
Actual WR |
Edge |
| 10% |
$92.50 |
$75 |
44.8% |
70% |
+25.2% |
| 20% |
$185 |
$75 |
28.8% |
52% |
+23.2% |
| 35% |
$323.75 |
$75 |
18.8% |
39% |
+20.2% |
What This Means
You have a significant edge over break-even at every profit target. Even on your worst days, the math is working for you. The 10% target requires only a 45% win rate to break even, but historically wins 70% of the time.
🎯 Daily Scenarios (4 Positions @ 70% WR, 10% TP)
Excellent Day
4 Wins / 0 Losses
+$370
24% probability
Good Day
3 Wins / 1 Loss
+$202.50
41% probability
Break-Even Day
2 Wins / 2 Losses
+$35
26% probability
Bad Day
1 Win / 3 Losses
-$132.50
8% probability
Worst Day
0 Wins / 4 Losses
-$300
1% probability
Expected Daily P/L
+$169
65% of days are profitable
🔄 Why Re-Center Every 15 Points?
-
✔
Maximum Theta Decay - Each new fly starts at peak time decay. Off-center flies lose theta efficiency.
-
✔
Independent Probability Events - Each butterfly is a separate 70% win chance. P(at least 1 winner from 4 flies) = 99.2%
-
✔
Oscillation Capture - Choppy days let multiple flies hit profit targets as price swings through their centers.
-
✔
Trend Day Protection - Even if price trends hard, your losses are capped at ~$300 (4 flies x $75).
-
✔
Always ATM - You stay in the highest gamma/premium zone where butterflies are most efficient.
⚠ Risk Management
| Metric |
Value |
| Max Daily Loss (4 flies) |
-$300 |
| Max Weekly Loss (worst case) |
-$1,500 |
| Expected Monthly Profit |
+$3,380 to +$6,441 |
| Risk/Reward per Trade |
1:12.3 |
| Probability of Worst Day |
1% |
The Bottom Line
Risk $75 per fly
Target $92 - $185 profit (10-20%)
Re-center every 15 SPX points
Max 4 positions at a time
Expected: +$3,400 to +$4,800/month
Disclaimer: This model is based on historical TastyTrade research data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Options trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Always paper trade or start small to validate the strategy works for your trading style. The win rates and profit expectations shown are based on backtested data and actual results may vary.